Markets are “Through the ROOF!”
I took some money off the table yesterday – as valuations are getting into the nose bleed seats. Of course I will never be 100% in cash, or 100% invested.
- ZeroHedge – No bubble here!
When the valuation metrics I track like the Shiller PE are extremely high I know the odds of lower than average long term returns are what to expect, so I decrease my asset allocation to equities. I do the opposite when these metrics are lower or falling.
Looking at the table below, it is amazing that Stocks, Bonds, and Oil are all ripping higher at the same time – the magic of a dovish Federal Reserve – and zero interest rates.
The following chart is based on the Z Option Market Analysis Tool – which determines if a market is trending by assigning a trending score from -3 to +3. This helps us keep our trading with the trend.
| Symbol | Description | Short Term Trend | Medium Term Trend |
| $DJI | Dow Jones Industrial Average | 3 | 3 |
| SPX | S&P 500 INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| RUT | RUSSELL 2000 INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| NDX | NASDAQ-100 INDEX INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| VIX | CBOE MARKET VOLATILITY INDEX | -3 | -3 |
| /ZB[M6] | 30-Year U.S. Treasury Bond Futures,ETH | 3 | 3 |
| /ZN[M6] | 10-Year U.S. Treasury Note Futures,ETH | 3 | 3 |
| /GC[M6] | Gold Futures, ETH | -2 | 1 |
| /CL[K6] | Light Sweet Crude Oil Futures,ETH | 3 | 3 |
| /DX[M6] | US Dollar Index Futures | -1 | -3 |
| $DJT | Dow Jones Transportation Average | 3 | 3 |
| XLK | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST TECHNOLOGY SELECT INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| XLI | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST INDUSTRIAL SELECT INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| XLY | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST CONSUMER DIS SELECT INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| XLB | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST MATERIALS SELECT SEC INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| XLE | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST ENERGY SELECT INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| XLP | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST CONSUMER STAPLES INDEX | -2 | 1 |
| XLV | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST HEALTH CARE SELECT INDEX | 3 | 3 |
| XLU | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST UTILITIES SELECT INDEX | -2 | 1 |
| XLF | SELECT SECTOR SPDR TRUST FINANCIAL SELECT SECTOR FUND | 3 | 3 |
Any market showing a 3 or a -3 is trending strongly – and should be factored into any options strategy you are contemplating.
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